About big data era and Zuckerberg's law

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About big data era and Zuckerberg's law

Postby jackchen861 » Sat May 05, 2012 7:26 am

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Less than a year ago, Facebook founder Zuckerberg announced in Web 2.0 Summit, according to Facebook statistical data, social share information grows exponentially, today the total amount of share information groweed two times than two years ago, one year from now, the total share information user generated will double. Zuckerberg's social sharing law can show as a formula: Y = C x 2 x. X represent the time, Y represent amount of user's share information, C is for the moment of share information now. If this formula was set up, then 20 years later, a user's share information will be one million times than today, namely the 20 power of 2.

Zuckerberg laws really exist? If found how to understand? If simple see from individual users with visual experience this law may not be established. Only 24 hours a day, everyone's Internet time is limited. If the contribution data of his network after 10 years is more than one thousand times than today's, 20 years later one million times than today, how can a person face such a large volume of data in finite time? Can't imagine a man read the amount of information after ten years one thousand times than today's, ora person surfing on the mall or playing online games twenty years later one million times than today's. Similarly, if from traditional operation site, the data they can produce can only grow according to count progression.

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Zuckerberg's law only founded in website such as Facebook, that is, only applicable to the individual user, through the interpersonal relationship between information interaction and communication of the network service framework of WEB2.0. Say for example: according to the study of the sociology, people can only maintain effective up to 145 social relationship on average, that is 900 million users on FACEBOOK can each have 145 friends on average. If a user and his friends there only say a word or leave an action today, then he will be able to obtain 145 share information from his friends, and his production information is spreaded to 145 people. If the user and his friends said ten words or do ten action, the he will get 1450 items of information from friends, and the produced information in website is 145 10 power. In other words, if each user's network behavior is count level growth, then the spread between users, interaction, and sharing information is geometry class growth. Compared with the traditional web site, for example, a web portal, a users see a news only get a behavior record, see more ten news only have 10 records, data quantity will not produce the effect of geometric level growth, Zuckerberg's law fail.

The experience of the FACEBOOK data is that the share data get doubled each year, actually in theory the growth of the shared data should turn many transgressions. So, this is not a accurate mathematical laws, but only a description to the statistical significance. Different sites in different historical periods and different operational level, share data increase might be different. But, the main trend is not wrong, this rule will be effective in a quite long period. The famous Moore's law put forward in 1967, but still effective in 45 years later today.

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jackchen861
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